WTXS52 PGTW 080300 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 190208021218 2019020800 13S GELENA 009 02 160 09 SATL 030 T000 145S 0542E 080 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD T012 159S 0556E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD T024 176S 0577E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 192S 0604E 130 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD T048 206S 0631E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 230S 0673E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 248S 0709E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T120 257S 0741E 040 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD AMP 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.9S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.6S 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 19.2S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.6S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.0S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.8S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.7S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 54.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS THE EARLIER IR EYE FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE POOR IR PRESENTATION, A 2150Z GCOM COLOR 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS), AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE CURRENT DEGRADATION OF THE CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUES ARE A VERY FAVORABLE 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GELENA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWING BEHING 12S. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TRACK MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, AT THE EXTENDED 96 TO 120 HOUR RANGE FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE STEERING RIDGE RECEDES EQUATORWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION TO THE 120 TO 130 KNOT RANGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PERSISTENTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS VER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSTRAINED, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. GELENA SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // 1319020418 121S 559E 20 1319020500 124S 557E 20 1319020506 126S 553E 25 1319020512 127S 549E 25 1319020518 128S 544E 30 1319020600 124S 537E 35 1319020606 121S 534E 40 1319020612 122S 532E 45 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 NNNN