WTXS52 PGTW 112100 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 190211193255 2019021118 13S GELENA 024 01 120 14 SATL 060 T000 252S 0714E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T012 258S 0737E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 258S 0756E 040 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 258S 0773E 035 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 264S 0797E 030 T072 288S 0845E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 71.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 71.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.8S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.8S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 26.4S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 28.8S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 72.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC BEGINNING TO PEAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 111656Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INTIAIL INTENSITY CONTINUES TO COME DOWN, NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY VWS IS INCREASING, DECOUPLING THE LLCC FROM FLARING CONVECTION. THOUGH THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR, THE HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST HOWEVER, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO OCCASIONALLY FLARE. SSTS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 27 CESIUS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) NEAR 10 DEG NORTH. AS THE NER REORIENTS, THE TRACK OF TC 13S WILL FLATTEN TO MORE EASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THERAFTER AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM DIEGO GARCIA TO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS, DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// 1319020418 121S 559E 20 1319020500 124S 557E 20 1319020506 126S 553E 25 1319020512 127S 549E 25 1319020518 128S 544E 30 1319020600 124S 537E 35 1319020606 121S 534E 40 1319020612 122S 532E 45 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021106 238S 690E 60 1319021106 238S 690E 60 1319021112 245S 701E 55 1319021112 245S 701E 55 1319021118 252S 714E 50 1319021118 252S 714E 50 NNNN