WTXS52 PGTW 120300 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 190212010417 2019021200 13S GELENA 025 01 100 11 SATL 060 T000 254S 0726E 040 R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD T012 255S 0747E 035 R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 255S 0766E 035 R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 257S 0784E 030 T048 265S 0806E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 72.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 72.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 25.5S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 25.5S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 25.7S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.5S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 73.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC THAT IS PERIODICALLY TUCKING UNDER FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, SUPPORTED BY A 112216Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 TO 45 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTALLY, TC 13S LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE AREA, WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VWS, AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SSTS (26 CELSIUS), HOWEVER THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD, IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR, LEADING TO REDUCED RELATIVE SHEAR, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE OUTFLOW, IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE FROM TIME TO TIME AND THE LLCC TO TUCK BACK UNDER IT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE NER IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK OF TC 13S TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS STEERING SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING STR NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE WEAKENING TREND, BROUGHT ON BY THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL CONTINUE AND ULTIMATELY COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. // 1319020418 121S 559E 20 1319020500 124S 557E 20 1319020506 126S 553E 25 1319020512 127S 549E 25 1319020518 128S 544E 30 1319020600 124S 537E 35 1319020606 121S 534E 40 1319020612 122S 532E 45 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020618 124S 531E 55 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020700 125S 531E 65 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020706 125S 534E 70 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020712 131S 537E 75 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020718 137S 539E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020800 145S 542E 80 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020806 152S 547E 100 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020812 157S 552E 105 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020818 164S 563E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020900 169S 571E 110 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020906 179S 588E 115 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020912 187S 604E 120 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319020918 194S 618E 110 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021000 202S 632E 100 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021006 210S 643E 95 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021012 217S 655E 85 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021018 224S 667E 75 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021100 231S 680E 65 1319021106 238S 690E 60 1319021106 238S 690E 60 1319021112 245S 701E 55 1319021112 245S 701E 55 1319021118 252S 714E 50 1319021118 252S 714E 50 1319021200 254S 726E 40 NNNN