WTXS53 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 210121190853 2021012118 14S FOURTEEN 001 03 150 10 SATL RADR 060 T000 188S 1204E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T012 201S 1212E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 211S 1220E 040 T036 221S 1231E 035 T048 235S 1249E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.1S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.1S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.1S 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.5S 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 120.6E. 21JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A WEAK WARM SPOT DEVELOPING IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT SURROUNDED BY VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHT). THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS RESULTED IN SOME CHALLENGES IN LOCATING THE CENTER DUE THE LACK OF EVIDENT BANDING IN THE CDO WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED ROTATION IN THE BROOME AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR ANIMATIONS INDICATES THIS ROTATION LIES DIRECTLY UNDER THE WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE VHT'S AND NOT THE ACTUAL CENTER, LENDING OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST NEAR MANDORA BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND THOUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH VERY WARM (31 DEG C), HIGH OHC WATERS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO, OR AT, LANDFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IF SHEAR VALUES DECREASE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT, MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36, FINALLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. 1421011812 108S1289E 15 1421011818 109S1282E 15 1421011900 110S1275E 15 1421011906 108S1263E 15 1421011912 112S1254E 20 1421011918 118S1247E 20 1421012000 122S1238E 25 1421012006 132S1227E 25 1421012012 137S1214E 30 1421012018 145S1207E 30 1421012100 152S1204E 30 1421012106 167S1199E 30 1421012112 179S1199E 30 1421012118 188S1204E 35 NNNN