WTPS51 PGTW 120300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190212021101 2019021200 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 065 10 SATL 060 T000 140S 1645E 035 R034 055 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD T012 140S 1653E 040 R034 070 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 125 NW QD T024 141S 1657E 045 R034 070 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 143S 1659E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD T048 147S 1661E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD T072 163S 1664E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 183S 1660E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD T120 198S 1642E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.1S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.3S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.7S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.3S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.3S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.8S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIQUITIES AND THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS, WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS, STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASED OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF FIJI. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A NORTH LOOP AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// 1519021006 174S1564E 20 1519021012 174S1577E 20 1519021018 174S1590E 25 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 NNNN