WTPS51 PGTW 172100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190217194428 2019021718 15P OMA 024 01 215 04 SATL 040 T000 166S 1641E 055 R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD T012 173S 1636E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD T024 185S 1629E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 200S 1622E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD T048 212S 1616E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD T072 229S 1611E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD T096 257S 1618E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD T120 303S 1655E 055 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD AMP 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.5S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.2S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.9S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 25.7S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.3S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 164.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLARING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE DEVLOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 CELSIUS) AROUND THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COLD POOL AND INTO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEINGS TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERATINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// 1519021006 174S1564E 20 1519021012 174S1577E 20 1519021018 174S1590E 25 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 163S1643E 60 1519021712 163S1643E 60 1519021718 166S1641E 55 1519021718 166S1641E 55 NNNN