WTPS51 PGTW 180300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218014823 2019021800 15P OMA 025 01 215 06 SATL 040 T000 173S 1640E 050 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD T012 183S 1634E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD T024 194S 1627E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD T036 205S 1622E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD T048 217S 1618E 070 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD T072 235S 1613E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD T096 267S 1625E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 250 SW QD 200 NW QD T120 309S 1668E 045 R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.4S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.5S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.5S 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.7S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 30.9S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMIATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, BUT IS GROWING IN EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS AT 1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SST, WHICH IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERIN INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48, WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// 1519021006 174S1564E 20 1519021012 174S1577E 20 1519021018 174S1590E 25 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021800 173S1640E 50 NNNN