WTPS51 PGTW 210300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221010938 2019022100 15P OMA 037 01 225 05 SATL 040 T000 225S 1600E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD T012 232S 1594E 045 R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD T024 239S 1588E 045 R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 230 NW QD T036 247S 1584E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 290 SE QD 330 SW QD 270 NW QD T048 253S 1578E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 280 SE QD 320 SW QD 260 NW QD T072 248S 1572E 045 R034 080 NE QD 270 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD T096 241S 1567E 040 R034 060 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD T120 234S 1561E 035 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IRREGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY 4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER, INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. // 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021806 180S1636E 45 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022100 225S1600E 50 1519022100 225S1600E 50 NNNN