WTPS51 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190221191649 2019022118 15P OMA 040 01 205 10 SATL 040 T000 247S 1592E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD T012 258S 1588E 040 R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 150 NW QD T024 264S 1589E 040 R034 135 NE QD 200 SE QD 215 SW QD 190 NW QD T036 268S 1593E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD T048 263S 1596E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD T072 248S 1597E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR CENTERED FAR THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCEARNIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021806 180S1636E 45 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022106 232S1599E 45 1519022112 238S1597E 45 1519022118 247S1592E 40 NNNN