WTPS51 PGTW 220300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222005345 2019022200 15P OMA 041 01 185 10 SATL 040 T000 257S 1591E 040 R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD T012 268S 1591E 040 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD T024 274S 1596E 040 R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 220 NW QD T036 269S 1599E 035 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW QD 220 NW QD T048 262S 1600E 035 R034 010 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD T072 237S 1598E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.9S 159.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.2S 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.7S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE LENDED WEIGHT TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THOUGH ALL CONSESUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021806 180S1636E 45 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022106 232S1599E 45 1519022112 238S1597E 45 1519022118 247S1592E 40 1519022200 257S1591E 40 NNNN