WTPS51 PGTW 222100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190222191853 2019022218 15P OMA 044 01 105 09 SATL 040 T000 274S 1609E 035 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 255 NW QD T012 272S 1620E 030 T024 264S 1627E 030 AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD AND DIFFUSE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 221832Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 221039Z WHICH INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P LIES IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, LOW SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED TO THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP RIDGE WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY, LEADING TO A FURTHER WEAKENINGM, WHICH COUPLED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIDTH OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// 1519021100 164S1603E 25 1519021106 155S1612E 25 1519021112 151S1625E 25 1519021118 144S1636E 30 1519021200 140S1645E 35 1519021206 137S1649E 35 1519021212 137S1655E 45 1519021218 140S1658E 45 1519021300 143S1654E 45 1519021306 144S1650E 45 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021312 141S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021318 144S1654E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021400 147S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021406 149S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021412 151S1655E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021418 152S1654E 55 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021500 151S1650E 60 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021506 151S1651E 65 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021512 152S1648E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021518 153S1645E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021600 154S1643E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021606 154S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021612 153S1642E 70 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021618 153S1644E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021700 155S1642E 65 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021706 160S1643E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021712 164S1644E 60 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021718 168S1644E 55 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021800 173S1640E 50 1519021806 180S1636E 45 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021812 185S1631E 50 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021818 190S1627E 60 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021900 195S1624E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021906 200S1621E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021912 205S1618E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519021918 209S1615E 75 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022000 212S1612E 70 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022006 215S1610E 65 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022012 217S1608E 60 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022018 221S1604E 55 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022100 226S1602E 50 1519022106 232S1599E 45 1519022112 238S1597E 45 1519022118 247S1592E 40 1519022200 257S1591E 40 1519022206 267S1593E 35 1519022212 272S1599E 35 1519022218 274S1609E 35 NNNN