WTPS51 PGTW 010300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210201020644 2021020100 15P ANA 009 03 160 08 SATL 060 T000 212S 1791E 055 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 226S 1800E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD T024 242S 1784W 045 R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 262S 1764W 040 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD T048 285S 1738W 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 179.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 179.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.6S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.2S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 28.5S 173.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 179.3E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLY VWS IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON TC 15P, WITH THE WESTERN OUTER FEEDER BANDS STARTING TO EMERGE FROM UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES, SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.5-T4.0 (55 TO 65 KTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS CONFIRMED BY THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED DEPICTION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WESTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WATERS LESS THAN 26C BY TAU 36, AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. 1521012618 162S1684E 20 1521012700 162S1686E 25 1521012706 161S1688E 25 1521012712 161S1691E 25 1521012718 160S1693E 25 1521012800 156S1695E 25 1521012806 156S1701E 25 1521012812 157S1711E 25 1521012818 157S1717E 25 1521012900 157S1724E 30 1521012906 156S1732E 30 1521012912 153S1745E 30 1521012918 157S1757E 35 1521013000 161S1765E 40 1521013006 165S1770E 45 1521013012 169S1775E 50 1521013012 169S1775E 50 1521013018 174S1780E 60 1521013018 174S1780E 60 1521013100 181S1782E 65 1521013100 181S1782E 65 1521013100 181S1782E 65 1521013106 188S1781E 60 1521013106 188S1781E 60 1521013112 196S1786E 55 1521013112 196S1786E 55 1521013118 204S1788E 55 1521013118 204S1788E 55 1521020100 212S1791E 55 1521020100 212S1791E 55 NNNN