WTPS51 PGTW 260300 WARNING ATCG MIL 16P SWP 190226021032 2019022600 16P SIXTEEN 001 01 175 10 SATL 060 T000 149S 1758W 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 172S 1758W 040 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD T024 194S 1769W 045 R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD T036 216S 1775W 050 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD T048 236S 1778W 045 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD T072 280S 1766W 040 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD AMP 048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 072HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 175.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 175.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.2S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.4S 176.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.6S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.6S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 28.0S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 175.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 252037Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AND GRADIENT ENHANCED 40 KNOT WINDS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, A SLIGHT WESTWARD DEFLECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24 AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH 16P, LEADING TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BEGINNING AT TAU 48. THE ET WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AS STRONG BAROCLINICITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z. // 1619022500 123S1762W 25 1619022506 129S1761W 25 1619022512 134S1760W 30 1619022518 138S1759W 30 1619022521 144S1759W 30 1619022600 149S1758W 35 NNNN