WTXS52 PGTW 160300 WARNING ATCG MIL 16S SIO 200216014930 2020021600 16S GABEKILE 003 01 160 08 SATL 025 T000 184S 0746E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 190S 0745E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 193S 0743E 060 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T036 196S 0741E 045 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD T048 199S 0740E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD T072 202S 0737E 035 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 208S 0729E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD T120 216S 0718E 030 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.3S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.2S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.8S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.2S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.7S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.2S 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 74.1E. 1620021400 144S 749E 25 1620021406 145S 752E 25 1620021412 149S 752E 30 1620021418 154S 750E 30 1620021500 160S 747E 35 1620021506 164S 745E 40 1620021512 171S 741E 45 NNNN