WTXS51 PGTW 080300 WARNING ATCG MIL 17S SIO 190308010407 2019030800 17S HALEH 024 01 205 16 SATL 060 T000 296S 0662E 040 R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD 215 SW QD 115 NW QD T012 322S 0650E 040 R034 220 NE QD 270 SE QD 190 SW QD 110 NW QD T024 348S 0646E 035 R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD T036 374S 0657E 030 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 024 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 29.6S 66.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.6S 66.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 32.2S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 34.8S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 37.4S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 65.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID DECAY, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS ARE SHEARED OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 212223 SSMI 36GHZ MICRWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LLCC SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.4 (34 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S LIES IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS AND COOL SSTS (25 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOR REMAINS ROBUST, BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY THE OTHER UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DECOUPLED AND IS PASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALREADY LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DISSIIPATION BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING EXTRA- OR SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER IT IS WELL NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING THE TRANSITION. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND REORIENTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// 1719022818 92S 780E 20 1719030100 97S 778E 25 1719030106 100S 769E 25 1719030112 104S 763E 25 1719030118 108S 757E 30 1719030200 114S 754E 30 1719030206 120S 749E 40 1719030212 125S 742E 45 1719030218 132S 740E 55 1719030218 132S 740E 55 1719030300 139S 737E 60 1719030300 139S 737E 60 1719030306 146S 736E 65 1719030306 146S 736E 65 1719030306 146S 736E 65 1719030312 156S 737E 70 1719030312 156S 737E 70 1719030312 156S 737E 70 1719030318 163S 735E 75 1719030318 163S 735E 75 1719030318 163S 735E 75 1719030400 171S 733E 90 1719030400 171S 733E 90 1719030400 171S 733E 90 1719030406 180S 730E 105 1719030406 180S 730E 105 1719030406 180S 730E 105 1719030412 187S 726E 105 1719030412 187S 726E 105 1719030412 187S 726E 105 1719030418 191S 725E 115 1719030418 191S 725E 115 1719030418 191S 725E 115 1719030500 196S 724E 110 1719030500 196S 724E 110 1719030500 196S 724E 110 1719030506 204S 722E 100 1719030506 204S 722E 100 1719030506 204S 722E 100 1719030512 211S 717E 95 1719030512 211S 717E 95 1719030512 211S 717E 95 1719030518 217S 714E 90 1719030518 217S 714E 90 1719030518 217S 714E 90 1719030600 223S 709E 85 1719030600 223S 709E 85 1719030600 223S 709E 85 1719030606 230S 700E 80 1719030606 230S 700E 80 1719030606 230S 700E 80 1719030612 236S 691E 75 1719030612 236S 691E 75 1719030612 236S 691E 75 1719030618 243S 685E 75 1719030618 243S 685E 75 1719030618 243S 685E 75 1719030700 251S 681E 70 1719030700 251S 681E 70 1719030700 251S 681E 70 1719030706 260S 677E 65 1719030706 260S 677E 65 1719030706 260S 677E 65 1719030712 270S 673E 60 1719030712 270S 673E 60 1719030718 282S 670E 50 1719030718 282S 670E 50 1719030800 296S 662E 40 NNNN