WTPS53 PGTW 310900 WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210131074017 2021013106 17P LUCAS 002 03 090 09 SATL 060 T000 139S 1532E 050 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 140S 1560E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 160 NW QD T024 148S 1594E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 200 NW QD T036 162S 1627E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 210 NW QD T048 180S 1653E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD T072 213S 1674E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD T096 233S 1675E 045 R034 050 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD T120 251S 1659E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 153.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 153.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.0S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.8S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.2S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.0S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.3S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.1S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 153.9E. 31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // 1721012700 150S1415E 20 1721012706 149S1418E 20 1721012712 148S1421E 20 1721012718 148S1423E 20 1721012800 147S1425E 20 1721012806 147S1427E 20 1721012812 147S1429E 20 1721012818 145S1432E 20 1721012900 142S1439E 20 1721012906 137S1449E 20 1721012912 133S1463E 20 1721012918 132S1475E 25 1721013000 133S1482E 25 1721013006 135S1492E 30 1721013012 139S1503E 30 1721013018 139S1515E 30 1721013100 139S1523E 40 1721013106 139S1532E 50 NNNN