WTPS53 PGTW 011500 WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 210201131537 2021020112 17P LUCAS 007 02 120 19 SATL 040 T000 157S 1626E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 145 NW QD T012 173S 1647E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD T024 192S 1664E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 211S 1670E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 225S 1667E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 242S 1656E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 258S 1639E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 162.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 162.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.3S 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.2S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.1S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.5S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.2S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 25.8S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 163.1E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 1721012700 150S1415E 20 1721012706 149S1418E 20 1721012712 148S1421E 20 1721012718 148S1423E 20 1721012800 147S1425E 20 1721012806 147S1427E 20 1721012812 147S1429E 20 1721012818 145S1432E 20 1721012900 142S1439E 20 1721012906 137S1449E 20 1721012912 133S1463E 20 1721012918 132S1475E 25 1721013000 133S1482E 25 1721013006 135S1492E 30 1721013012 139S1503E 30 1721013018 139S1515E 30 1721013100 139S1523E 40 1721013106 136S1538E 50 1721013112 132S1552E 55 1721013112 132S1552E 55 1721013118 137S1572E 55 1721013118 137S1572E 55 1721020100 141S1586E 55 1721020100 141S1586E 55 1721020106 148S1609E 60 1721020106 148S1609E 60 1721020112 157S1626E 65 1721020112 157S1626E 65 1721020112 157S1626E 65 NNNN