WTXS52 PGTW 100900 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 210210075401 2021021006 19S FARAJI 011 01 160 03 SATL 060 T000 154S 0850E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 159S 0850E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 163S 0849E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 166S 0844E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD T048 171S 0834E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 175S 0813E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD T096 175S 0792E 045 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD T120 168S 0764E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 85.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 85.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.9S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.3S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.6S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.1S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.5S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.5S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.8S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 85.0E. 10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 888 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPROVED STRUCUTRE WITH A WEAK, BUT WELL DEFINED, EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS FILLED IN AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION, AND THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 100330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INTIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM FMEE AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.9. TC FARAJI IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS, BEING SOMEWHAT CONSTRAINED BY THE LACK OF DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS, THE STR TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TC 19S TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY STEADY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES IN VWS, RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, SHORT-TERM EXCUSIONS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE MEAN INTENSITY TREND CAN BE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO SHORT DURATION CHANGES IN THE LOCALIZED ENVIRONMENT AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE STR BUILDS AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF TC 19S, LEADING TO A GENERALLY WEST TO SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT MUCH HIGHER RATE BETWEEN TAUS 72-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPICTS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A VERY TIGHT TURN AND THE NAVGEM FORECASTING A MUCH SHALLOWER TURN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS FOR A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE SHARPER TURN SCENARIO, BUT WITH A SPREAD OF 440NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// 1921020400 105S 801E 20 1921020406 108S 808E 20 1921020412 112S 813E 20 1921020418 116S 814E 25 1921020500 121S 814E 35 1921020506 127S 812E 40 1921020512 131S 807E 45 1921020518 133S 804E 50 1921020518 133S 804E 50 1921020600 138S 801E 50 1921020600 138S 801E 50 1921020606 140S 798E 60 1921020606 140S 798E 60 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921021000 151S 849E 95 1921021000 151S 849E 95 1921021000 151S 849E 95 1921021006 154S 850E 95 1921021006 154S 850E 95 1921021006 154S 850E 95 NNNN