WTXS52 PGTW 130900 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 210213073448 2021021306 19S FARAJI 017 01 240 06 SATL 040 T000 194S 0801E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 197S 0789E 040 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD T024 197S 0773E 035 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD T036 194S 0749E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD T048 190S 0725E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD T072 181S 0676E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 80.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 80.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.7S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.7S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 19.4S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0S 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.1S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 79.8E. 13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1269 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MARITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130407Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED MULTI-AGENCY (PGTW AND FMEE) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT) RANGING FROM T3.0-T3.2 (45-47 KTS). A PARTIAL 130409Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED 35-40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 175NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// 1921020400 105S 801E 20 1921020406 108S 808E 20 1921020412 112S 813E 20 1921020418 116S 814E 25 1921020500 121S 814E 35 1921020506 127S 812E 40 1921020512 131S 807E 45 1921020518 133S 804E 50 1921020518 133S 804E 50 1921020600 138S 801E 50 1921020600 138S 801E 50 1921020606 140S 798E 60 1921020606 140S 798E 60 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020612 143S 798E 70 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020618 147S 796E 75 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020700 149S 796E 100 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020706 149S 798E 115 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020712 148S 799E 110 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020718 146S 802E 115 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020800 143S 809E 110 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020806 142S 815E 120 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020812 142S 820E 135 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020818 142S 825E 140 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020900 141S 830E 135 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020906 140S 835E 130 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020912 143S 843E 120 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921020918 147S 846E 110 1921021000 150S 848E 95 1921021000 150S 848E 95 1921021000 150S 848E 95 1921021006 152S 850E 95 1921021006 152S 850E 95 1921021006 152S 850E 95 1921021012 155S 853E 90 1921021012 155S 853E 90 1921021012 155S 853E 90 1921021018 158S 853E 90 1921021018 158S 853E 90 1921021018 158S 853E 90 1921021100 161S 850E 95 1921021100 161S 850E 95 1921021100 161S 850E 95 1921021106 164S 846E 95 1921021106 164S 846E 95 1921021106 164S 846E 95 1921021112 166S 843E 90 1921021112 166S 843E 90 1921021112 166S 843E 90 1921021118 174S 837E 80 1921021118 174S 837E 80 1921021118 174S 837E 80 1921021200 180S 832E 80 1921021200 180S 832E 80 1921021200 180S 832E 80 1921021206 183S 823E 70 1921021206 183S 823E 70 1921021206 183S 823E 70 1921021212 185S 815E 60 1921021212 185S 815E 60 1921021218 188S 811E 50 1921021300 191S 807E 45 1921021306 194S 801E 45 NNNN