WTXS51 PGTW 190900 WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210219071142 2021021906 21S GUAMBE 004 01 215 06 SATL 040 T000 246S 0368E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD T012 253S 0363E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 260S 0361E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD T036 273S 0364E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 290S 0377E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 340S 0460E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD AMP 048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 072HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 36.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 36.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.3S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 26.0S 36.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 27.3S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 29.0S 37.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 34.0S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 36.7E. 19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. AN 190225Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL MICROWAVE EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 190225Z GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND APPEARNCE OF THE WEAK EYE FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24 AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.// 2121021200 229S 361E 25 2121021206 224S 353E 20 2121021212 221S 345E 20 2121021218 220S 347E 20 2121021300 221S 350E 20 2121021306 225S 351E 20 2121021312 229S 343E 20 2121021318 233S 338E 20 2121021400 233S 328E 20 2121021406 233S 323E 20 2121021412 231S 319E 20 2121021418 230S 322E 25 2121021500 228S 325E 25 2121021506 225S 332E 25 2121021512 223S 338E 25 2121021518 219S 340E 25 2121021600 216S 351E 25 2121021606 218S 358E 20 2121021612 217S 363E 20 2121021618 212S 366E 25 2121021700 211S 370E 25 2121021706 213S 373E 30 2121021712 215S 374E 40 2121021718 217S 374E 45 2121021800 221S 374E 45 2121021806 226S 376E 50 2121021806 226S 376E 50 2121021812 230S 375E 50 2121021818 236S 374E 60 2121021818 236S 374E 60 2121021900 241S 372E 65 2121021900 241S 372E 65 2121021900 241S 372E 65 2121021906 246S 368E 70 2121021906 246S 368E 70 2121021906 246S 368E 70 NNNN