WTXS51 PGTW 281500 WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210228132218 2021022812 22S MARIAN 006 01 230 05 SATL 030 T000 174S 0913E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD T012 178S 0906E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD T024 181S 0900E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 184S 0898E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD T048 186S 0902E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 192S 0922E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD T096 208S 0949E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T120 227S 0975E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E. 28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO ALSO SHOWED THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.// 2221022318 130S1163E 20 2221022400 125S1150E 25 2221022406 126S1128E 25 2221022412 125S1111E 25 2221022418 125S1088E 25 2221022500 127S1069E 25 2221022506 131S1055E 25 2221022512 135S1043E 30 2221022518 139S1028E 30 2221022600 142S1004E 45 2221022606 145S 985E 50 2221022606 145S 985E 50 2221022612 146S 970E 60 2221022612 146S 970E 60 2221022618 146S 960E 60 2221022618 146S 960E 60 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022800 168S 921E 80 2221022800 168S 921E 80 2221022800 168S 921E 80 2221022806 171S 917E 85 2221022806 171S 917E 85 2221022806 171S 917E 85 2221022812 174S 913E 100 2221022812 174S 913E 100 2221022812 174S 913E 100 NNNN