WTXS51 PGTW 060300 WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210306015922 2021030600 22S MARIAN 017 02 165 07 SATL 045 T000 258S 0959E 035 R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD T012 267S 0962E 035 R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 275S 0963E 030 AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 024HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 25.8S 95.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 95.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.7S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.5S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 96.0E. 06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S IS BECOMING SUBTROPICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO SIGNIFICANT (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR . THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ERODING MSI LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY FIXES BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING GALES PERSISTING AROUND THE REMNANT LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MARIAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF PHASE STATE AND PRESENCE OF GALE WINDS, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL TRANISITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // 2221022318 130S1163E 20 2221022400 125S1150E 25 2221022406 126S1128E 25 2221022412 125S1111E 25 2221022418 125S1088E 25 2221022500 127S1069E 25 2221022506 131S1055E 25 2221022512 135S1043E 30 2221022518 139S1028E 30 2221022600 142S1004E 45 2221022606 145S 985E 50 2221022606 145S 985E 50 2221022612 146S 970E 60 2221022612 146S 970E 60 2221022618 146S 960E 60 2221022618 146S 960E 60 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022700 148S 950E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022706 153S 941E 65 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022712 159S 933E 70 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022718 163S 927E 75 2221022800 168S 921E 85 2221022800 168S 921E 85 2221022800 168S 921E 85 2221022806 171S 917E 95 2221022806 171S 917E 95 2221022806 171S 917E 95 2221022812 175S 912E 105 2221022812 175S 912E 105 2221022812 175S 912E 105 2221022818 177S 909E 95 2221022818 177S 909E 95 2221022818 177S 909E 95 2221030100 179S 903E 90 2221030100 179S 903E 90 2221030100 179S 903E 90 2221030106 180S 899E 90 2221030106 180S 899E 90 2221030106 180S 899E 90 2221030112 182S 897E 85 2221030112 182S 897E 85 2221030112 182S 897E 85 2221030118 184S 895E 90 2221030118 184S 895E 90 2221030118 184S 895E 90 2221030200 185S 895E 90 2221030200 185S 895E 90 2221030200 185S 895E 90 2221030206 186S 896E 90 2221030206 186S 896E 90 2221030206 186S 896E 90 2221030212 187S 898E 90 2221030212 187S 898E 90 2221030212 187S 898E 90 2221030218 188S 903E 85 2221030218 188S 903E 85 2221030218 188S 903E 85 2221030300 189S 909E 80 2221030300 189S 909E 80 2221030300 189S 909E 80 2221030306 190S 913E 65 2221030306 190S 913E 65 2221030306 190S 913E 65 2221030312 194S 921E 60 2221030312 194S 921E 60 2221030318 199S 927E 50 2221030318 199S 927E 50 2221030400 205S 932E 45 2221030406 211S 936E 45 2221030412 216S 940E 45 2221030418 225S 945E 45 2221030500 231S 946E 45 2221030506 240S 951E 40 2221030512 245S 953E 40 2221030518 251S 957E 35 2221030600 258S 959E 35 NNNN