WTXS52 PGTW 092100 WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 210309200144 2021030918 24S HABANA 012 01 300 09 SATL 040 T000 179S 0781E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 175S 0767E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 174S 0754E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 176S 0743E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 181S 0733E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 192S 0717E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD T096 205S 0717E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD T120 218S 0726E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.5S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.4S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.6S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.1S 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.2S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.5S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 21.8S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 77.7E. 09MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM A COLD POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS. A 10NM EYE BEGAN SHOWING OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS PRIOR THE 091800Z FIX. A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091750Z GPMI SERIES LENDS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH, BUT STILL GOOD: THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE CLIMBED TO T5.0 (90 KTS) AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES JUMPED TO T5.6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOOK TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS--VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS BELOW 15 KNOTS, SSTS ARE ABOVE 29C ALONG TRACK, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS COCOONED FROM THE SHEAR ZONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS WELL SATURATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, NOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY ON THIS STORM. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FORCE AND HAS NUDGED THE LLCC SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK--THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIVING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHEN A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND BEGIN A SLOW, GRACEFUL BEND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, PEAKING IN INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AS TC 24S TURNS POLEWARD, IT STILL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.// 2421030306 148S 651E 15 2421030312 152S 662E 25 2421030318 156S 678E 25 2421030400 158S 695E 30 2421030406 160S 712E 30 2421030412 164S 725E 35 2421030418 167S 734E 45 2421030500 166S 745E 55 2421030500 166S 745E 55 2421030506 164S 755E 90 2421030506 164S 755E 90 2421030506 164S 755E 90 2421030512 163S 763E 115 2421030512 163S 763E 115 2421030512 163S 763E 115 2421030518 161S 771E 120 2421030518 161S 771E 120 2421030518 161S 771E 120 2421030600 160S 775E 120 2421030600 160S 775E 120 2421030600 160S 775E 120 2421030606 160S 778E 125 2421030606 160S 778E 125 2421030606 160S 778E 125 2421030612 161S 781E 120 2421030612 161S 781E 120 2421030612 161S 781E 120 2421030618 164S 785E 120 2421030618 164S 785E 120 2421030618 164S 785E 120 2421030700 167S 790E 115 2421030700 167S 790E 115 2421030700 167S 790E 115 2421030706 169S 796E 115 2421030706 169S 796E 115 2421030706 169S 796E 115 2421030712 171S 801E 105 2421030712 171S 801E 105 2421030712 171S 801E 105 2421030718 175S 806E 100 2421030718 175S 806E 100 2421030718 175S 806E 100 2421030800 179S 809E 100 2421030800 179S 809E 100 2421030800 179S 809E 100 2421030806 182S 810E 80 2421030806 182S 810E 80 2421030806 182S 810E 80 2421030812 184S 810E 75 2421030812 184S 810E 75 2421030812 184S 810E 75 2421030818 185S 806E 70 2421030818 185S 806E 70 2421030818 185S 806E 70 2421030900 185S 802E 70 2421030900 185S 802E 70 2421030900 185S 802E 70 2421030906 184S 795E 70 2421030906 184S 795E 70 2421030906 184S 795E 70 2421030912 183S 789E 75 2421030912 183S 789E 75 2421030912 183S 789E 75 2421030918 179S 781E 85 2421030918 179S 781E 85 2421030918 179S 781E 85 NNNN