WTPS51 PGTW 032100 WARNING ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200403191242 2020040318 25P HAROLD 005 01 135 11 SATL 060 T000 135S 1638E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 143S 1648E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD T024 150S 1654E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 155S 1658E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD T048 158S 1664E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD T072 167S 1689E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 182S 1732E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T120 208S 1791E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 163.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 163.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 14.3S 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.0S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.5S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.8S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.7S 168.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.2S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 20.8S 179.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.1E. 03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND VANUATU. A 031743Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.0 FROM PHFO, SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T4.6. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING ROBUST OUTFLOW, HIGH SSTS OF 29-30 DEG CELSIUS AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, THOUGH THE RELATIVE VWS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, AS THE STR TO THE EAST RIDGES STRONGLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH, WHILE A NEW NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STR DEVELOPS NEAR SAMOA, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SPREAD INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE NEAR-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// 2520033118 91S1534E 20 2520040100 89S1539E 20 2520040106 89S1544E 20 2520040112 90S1552E 20 2520040118 92S1559E 20 2520040200 94S1563E 25 2520040206 94S1572E 30 2520040212 97S1580E 30 2520040218 99S1595E 35 2520040300 106S1613E 40 2520040306 115S1624E 45 2520040312 127S1630E 55 2520040312 127S1630E 55 2520040318 135S1638E 60 2520040318 135S1638E 60 NNNN