WTPS51 PGTW 080300 WARNING ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200408013256 2020040800 25P HAROLD 022 01 110 19 SATL RADR 010 T000 189S 1777E 120 R064 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD T012 207S 1782W 115 R064 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 170 NW QD T024 230S 1735W 100 R064 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 257S 1680W 080 R064 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD T048 288S 1617W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD AMP 036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 048HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 177.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 177.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 20.7S 178.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.0S 173.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 25.7S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 32 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 28.8S 161.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.7E. 08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONCE AGAIN, TC 25P HAS PROVEN ESPECIALLY RESILIENT WITH A SMALL, CLOUD FILLED, PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH A RADAR FIX FROM PGTW BASED ON THE FIJI COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP, AND A PARTIAL 080006Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING, AT LEAST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE CAPTURED BY THE MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SLIGHT HEDGE UPWARD FROM THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, AN ADVACNED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.1 (118 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSESNUS ESTIMATE OF 112 KNOTS. THE HEDGE UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE APPEARANCE OF A CYAN RING AND STRUCTURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONEMNT REMAINS FAVORABLE THOUGH SIGNS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE THAT THIS MAY BE CHANGING. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS), SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28 DEG CELSIUS) AND OUTLOW IS STRONG ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER TC 25P THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY MORE STRAIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PRESSURE PRODUCED BY THIS FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH A RAPID MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS COOLER WATERS, AND STEADILY INCREASING VWS, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TC 25P WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A STORM STRENGTH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, THOUGH SPREAD IS ONLY 155 NM AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// 2520033118 91S1534E 20 2520040100 89S1539E 20 2520040106 89S1544E 20 2520040112 90S1552E 20 2520040118 92S1559E 20 2520040200 94S1563E 25 2520040206 94S1572E 30 2520040212 97S1580E 30 2520040218 99S1595E 35 2520040300 106S1613E 40 2520040306 115S1624E 45 2520040312 127S1630E 55 2520040312 127S1630E 55 2520040318 135S1638E 60 2520040318 135S1638E 60 2520040400 139S1642E 90 2520040400 139S1642E 90 2520040400 139S1642E 90 2520040406 143S1648E 110 2520040406 143S1648E 110 2520040406 143S1648E 110 2520040412 146S1651E 115 2520040412 146S1651E 115 2520040412 146S1651E 115 2520040418 150S1655E 110 2520040418 150S1655E 110 2520040418 150S1655E 110 2520040500 154S1656E 100 2520040500 154S1656E 100 2520040500 154S1656E 100 2520040506 156S1655E 105 2520040506 156S1655E 105 2520040506 156S1655E 105 2520040512 156S1656E 120 2520040512 156S1656E 120 2520040512 156S1656E 120 2520040518 153S1661E 125 2520040518 153S1661E 125 2520040518 153S1661E 125 2520040600 155S1667E 115 2520040600 155S1667E 115 2520040600 155S1667E 115 2520040606 158S1678E 135 2520040606 158S1678E 135 2520040606 158S1678E 135 2520040612 160S1688E 145 2520040612 160S1688E 145 2520040612 160S1688E 145 2520040618 164S1697E 135 2520040618 164S1697E 135 2520040618 164S1697E 135 2520040700 166S1711E 115 2520040700 166S1711E 115 2520040700 166S1711E 115 2520040706 171S1727E 110 2520040706 171S1727E 110 2520040706 171S1727E 110 2520040712 175S1742E 115 2520040712 175S1742E 115 2520040712 175S1742E 115 2520040718 183S1758E 110 2520040718 183S1758E 110 2520040718 183S1758E 110 2520040800 189S1777E 120 2520040800 189S1777E 120 2520040800 189S1777E 120 NNNN