WTXS51 PGTW 240900 WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210424070420 2021042406 29S JOBO 008 01 270 08 SATL 060 T000 079S 0407E 035 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD T012 074S 0392E 030 T024 070S 0375E 025 AMP 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E. 24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15KT ) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z.// 2921041418 104S 782E 15 2921041500 102S 776E 15 2921041506 100S 770E 15 2921041512 97S 766E 15 2921041518 98S 762E 15 2921041600 100S 759E 15 2921041606 100S 747E 15 2921041612 102S 735E 15 2921041618 99S 723E 15 2921041700 98S 702E 15 2921041706 98S 687E 15 2921041712 101S 676E 15 2921041718 105S 666E 15 2921041800 107S 661E 15 2921041806 109S 651E 20 2921041812 112S 642E 20 2921041818 115S 622E 20 2921041900 111S 612E 20 2921041906 105S 586E 25 2921041912 114S 573E 25 2921041918 115S 554E 25 2921042000 111S 537E 25 2921042006 108S 524E 30 2921042012 105S 510E 30 2921042018 102S 498E 35 2921042100 99S 488E 45 2921042106 97S 482E 55 2921042106 97S 482E 55 2921042112 98S 478E 55 2921042112 98S 478E 55 2921042118 98S 471E 50 2921042118 98S 471E 50 2921042200 98S 465E 50 2921042200 98S 465E 50 2921042206 97S 457E 50 2921042212 96S 452E 45 2921042218 94S 448E 40 2921042300 91S 443E 45 2921042306 86S 439E 45 2921042312 86S 430E 40 2921042318 81S 423E 35 2921042400 79S 415E 35 2921042406 79S 407E 35 NNNN