WTIO51 PGTW 070300 WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107021139 2019110700 23W MATMO 007 01 360 06 SATL 060 T000 145N 0900E 050 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 155N 0895E 065 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD T024 165N 0889E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD T036 176N 0886E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD T048 191N 0887E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 208N 0893E 070 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 217N 0903E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T120 219N 0911E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 90.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 90.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.5N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.5N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.6N 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.1N 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.8N 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.7N 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.9N 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 89.9E. 07NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE EIR BD ENHANCEMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 062237Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED A RELATIVELY BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS), KNES REPORTED A T4.0 (65 KNOTS). IN LIGHT OF THIS, A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AT 061532Z AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL EYE FEATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. TS 23W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, ROBUST DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS. THE VWS VECTOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, SO NET SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE ENVIORONMENTAL SHEAR WOULD INDICATE, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR CENTERED OVER NORTHERN THAILAND. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN, STEERING WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND TS 23W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE TURNING EASTWARD IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 120. THERE IS OVERALL STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF TS 23W THROUGH TAU 72. THE NOTABLE OUTLIER BEING THE ECMWF, WHICH FAVORS A A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NO RECURVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERAGE AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WITH GALWEM, NAVGEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO EASTERN BANGLADESH, WHILE THE GFS, JGSM AND UKMET MEMBERS TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND KEEP IT IN THE BAY OF BENGAL THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THEOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AND JUST AHEAD AND NORTH AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. // 2319102418 79N1371E 15 2319102500 80N1364E 15 2319102506 80N1355E 15 2319102512 80N1344E 15 2319102518 75N1331E 15 2319102600 73N1319E 15 2319102606 71N1306E 15 2319102612 72N1291E 15 2319102618 75N1279E 15 2319102700 75N1272E 15 2319102706 78N1262E 15 2319102712 78N1249E 15 2319102718 80N1220E 15 2319102800 84N1196E 15 2319102806 93N1188E 20 2319102812 102N1181E 20 2319102818 110N1170E 20 2319102900 114N1162E 20 2319102906 119N1152E 20 2319102912 122N1141E 20 2319102918 128N1128E 25 2319103000 130N1119E 35 2319103006 132N1110E 40 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103018 136N1088E 45 2319103100 139N1072E 35 2319103106 138N1062E 30 2319103112 137N1047E 25 2319103118 138N1029E 20 2319110100 139N1014E 15 2319110106 142N1002E 15 2319110112 141N 996E 15 2319110118 140N 991E 15 2319110200 138N 987E 15 2319110206 136N 981E 15 2319110212 135N 976E 15 2319110218 134N 971E 15 2319110300 133N 966E 15 2319110306 133N 960E 15 2319110312 133N 954E 15 2319110318 133N 949E 15 2319110400 133N 942E 15 2319110406 135N 933E 20 2319110412 137N 922E 25 2319110418 132N 919E 20 2319110500 132N 910E 20 2319110506 130N 906E 25 2319110512 130N 900E 25 2319110518 130N 897E 30 2319110600 132N 897E 30 2319110606 134N 898E 30 2319110612 136N 899E 30 2319110618 139N 900E 35 2319110700 145N 900E 50 NNNN