WTIO51 PGTW 090900 WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191109075827 2019110906 23W MATMO 016 01 355 08 SATL RADR 020 T000 207N 0876E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 217N 0882E 070 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 226N 0895E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD T036 232N 0906E 025 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 016 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 87.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 87.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.7N 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.6N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.2N 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 87.7E. 09NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE AND INDIAN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR DATA SHOWING A WELL DEFINED RADAR EYE. A 090342Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE LENDED SUPPORT TO THE FIX POSITION, AND INDICATED A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, WITH SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND DEMS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM 090053Z OF 72 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD, DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS AND WARM SSTS OF 30 DEG CELSIUS. THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS IS CURRENTLY BEING OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR VECTOR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FIGHT THE SHEAR. OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, EXPECT TC 23W TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, LIKELY PEAKING AT 75-80 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY WARM, SHALLOW WATERS AND IS EXPOSED TO DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BE ASHORE AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND THIS IS REFLECTED AS A STEADY INTENSITY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH DOES NOT DIRECTLY CAPTURE THE NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. AS THE SYSETM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND IT BE DECAPITATED DUE TO A RAPID INCREASE IN VWS AS IT MOVES UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER EASTERN BANGLADESH BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. // 2319102418 79N1371E 15 2319102500 80N1364E 15 2319102506 80N1355E 15 2319102512 80N1344E 15 2319102518 75N1331E 15 2319102600 73N1319E 15 2319102606 71N1306E 15 2319102612 72N1291E 15 2319102618 75N1279E 15 2319102700 75N1272E 15 2319102706 78N1262E 15 2319102712 78N1249E 15 2319102718 80N1220E 15 2319102800 84N1196E 15 2319102806 93N1188E 20 2319102812 102N1181E 20 2319102818 110N1170E 20 2319102900 114N1162E 20 2319102906 119N1152E 20 2319102912 122N1141E 20 2319102918 128N1128E 25 2319103000 130N1119E 35 2319103006 132N1110E 40 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103018 136N1088E 45 2319103100 139N1072E 35 2319103106 138N1062E 30 2319103112 137N1047E 25 2319103118 138N1029E 20 2319110100 139N1014E 15 2319110106 142N1002E 15 2319110112 141N 996E 15 2319110118 140N 991E 15 2319110200 138N 987E 15 2319110206 136N 981E 15 2319110212 135N 976E 15 2319110218 134N 971E 15 2319110300 133N 966E 15 2319110306 133N 960E 15 2319110312 133N 954E 15 2319110318 133N 949E 15 2319110400 133N 942E 15 2319110406 135N 933E 20 2319110412 134N 924E 25 2319110418 133N 917E 20 2319110500 132N 910E 20 2319110506 130N 906E 25 2319110512 130N 900E 25 2319110518 130N 897E 30 2319110600 132N 897E 30 2319110606 134N 898E 30 2319110612 136N 899E 30 2319110618 139N 898E 35 2319110700 145N 892E 50 2319110700 145N 892E 50 2319110706 150N 887E 55 2319110706 150N 887E 55 2319110712 157N 881E 55 2319110712 157N 881E 55 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110906 207N 876E 70 2319110906 207N 876E 70 2319110906 207N 876E 70 NNNN