WTIO51 PGTW 091500 WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191109132922 2019110912 23W MATMO 017 01 030 06 SATL RADR 020 T000 212N 0879E 085 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD T012 220N 0888E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 226N 0900E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD T036 230N 0912E 025 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 87.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 87.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.0N 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.6N 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.0N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 88.1E. 09NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A DISTINCT EYE FORMING BUT NOW STARTING TO FILL AND WARM ONCE AGAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF BD ENHANCED EIR IMAGERY DEPICTING A 10 NM WIDE EYE, INDIAN COMPOSITE RADAR DATA AND SUPPORTED BY A 091206Z SSMIS 89 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A VERY DISCTINCT MICROWAAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 85 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMTE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED TECHNIQUE ESTIMTE OF 87 KNOTS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 23W HAS UNDERGONE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS IT MOVED OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUT VERY WARM WATERS AND BEGAN TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS. TC 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY EVEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, WITH A MUCH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL AS A COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DECAPITATION TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE FIRST HINTS OF A DECOUPLING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS ARE EVIDENT IN THE 091206Z SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EYE ABOUT 5 NM NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. THIS EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THEREAFTER DEVELOPING A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLE REPRESENT THE LEFT ARM OF THE BIFURCATION, TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS REPRESENTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE LOW LEVEL REMANANTS OF SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND BACK OUT TO SEA AFTER IT IS DECAPITATED BETWEEN TAU 18 AND 24. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.// 2319102418 79N1371E 15 2319102500 80N1364E 15 2319102506 80N1355E 15 2319102512 80N1344E 15 2319102518 75N1331E 15 2319102600 73N1319E 15 2319102606 71N1306E 15 2319102612 72N1291E 15 2319102618 75N1279E 15 2319102700 75N1272E 15 2319102706 78N1262E 15 2319102712 78N1249E 15 2319102718 80N1220E 15 2319102800 84N1196E 15 2319102806 93N1188E 20 2319102812 102N1181E 20 2319102818 110N1170E 20 2319102900 114N1162E 20 2319102906 119N1152E 20 2319102912 122N1141E 20 2319102918 128N1128E 25 2319103000 130N1119E 35 2319103006 132N1110E 40 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103012 134N1101E 50 2319103018 136N1088E 45 2319103100 139N1072E 35 2319103106 138N1062E 30 2319103112 137N1047E 25 2319103118 138N1029E 20 2319110100 139N1014E 15 2319110106 142N1002E 15 2319110112 141N 996E 15 2319110118 140N 991E 15 2319110200 138N 987E 15 2319110206 136N 981E 15 2319110212 135N 976E 15 2319110218 134N 971E 15 2319110300 133N 966E 15 2319110306 133N 960E 15 2319110312 133N 954E 15 2319110318 133N 949E 15 2319110400 133N 942E 15 2319110406 135N 933E 20 2319110412 134N 924E 25 2319110418 133N 917E 20 2319110500 132N 910E 20 2319110506 130N 906E 25 2319110512 130N 900E 25 2319110518 130N 897E 30 2319110600 132N 897E 30 2319110606 134N 898E 30 2319110612 136N 899E 30 2319110618 139N 898E 35 2319110700 145N 892E 50 2319110700 145N 892E 50 2319110706 150N 887E 55 2319110706 150N 887E 55 2319110712 157N 881E 55 2319110712 157N 881E 55 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110718 162N 877E 65 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110800 169N 876E 75 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110806 177N 878E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110812 187N 880E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110818 194N 878E 85 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110900 199N 877E 75 2319110906 207N 876E 70 2319110906 207N 876E 70 2319110906 207N 876E 70 2319110912 212N 879E 85 2319110912 212N 879E 85 2319110912 212N 879E 85 NNNN