ABPW10 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230330Z-230600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7N 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 141.7E HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO INVEST ONLY AND IS NO LONGER 
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES 
C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND MERGE 
WITH A WIDE SWATH OF ELEVATED WINDS THAT WILL WRAP INTO THE LLC FROM 
THE W-SW THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING GUAM 
AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS IN 2-3 DAYS, AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.  
98W WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL A LONG 
SWATH OF WIND SURGE IN AND AROUND THE MARIANAS FOR A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) IS NO LONGER 
SUSPECTED FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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