ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.1N 151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 63 NM 
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
HOWEVER, LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND 
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST WILL SLOW DOWN DEVELOPMENT MOVING 
FORWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD IVO GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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