ABPW10 PGTW 172000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/172000Z-180600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17SEP25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTH OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK 
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 90W TRACKING NORTH 
NORTHWEST WITH GFS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN ECMWF. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 90W TRACKING NORTH NORTHWEST, WHILE ECENS 
PROJECTING HIGHER INTENSITY THAN GEFS.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.9N 167.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM 
NORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT 
BEGINS TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
171013Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS COMING DIRECTLY FROM THE 
SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST WITH ECMWF BEING MORE INTENSE THAN THE 
OTHER MODELS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W TRACKING WEST WITH 
ECMWF HAVING A HIGHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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