"ABIO10 PGTW 021400\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/021400Z-021800ZJAN2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.5S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 101.5E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG \r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 0115147Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BELT OF \r\n20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), MODERATE EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.4S 58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 826 NM WEST OF \r\nDIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 010604Z \r\nASCAT DEPICTS WEAK LLCC WITH THE FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO \r\nCOLLAPSE, PARTICULARLY THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED \r\nCENTER. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF \r\nTHE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE LLCC. A 020950Z \r\nAMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT SOME \r\nFRAGMENTED AND DEVELOPMENTAL SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT \r\nTHAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (92S) WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE \r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM//"