"ABIO10 PGTW 090300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/090300Z-091800ZJAN2025//\r\nREF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082100ZJAN2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW \r\n082100)//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9S 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nCENTER. A 082302Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCLOUD LINES TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S \r\n103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIAL EXPOSED LLCC THAT IS \r\nBECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW POLEWARD ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS SHOW AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT, \r\nHOWEVER THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW \r\nAREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"