"ABIO10 PGTW 011800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/011800Z-021800ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.6S 103.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 102.5E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP \r\nCONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING \r\nALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\nTHAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT \r\nDUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE \r\nA SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE \r\nREF B (WTXS22 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE \r\nOVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW \r\n(20-25 KNOTS) IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A \r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND \r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"