"ABPW10 PGTW 021330\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021330Z-030600ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551ZFEB2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n18.5S 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 164.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC), JUST NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WITH WIDESPREAD \r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nA MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\nOF 30-40 KNOTS, STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nINDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH AN EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL TC INTENSITY. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S \r\n158.9E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. \r\nANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-\r\nEXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP \r\nCONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 \r\nC) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nINDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG AN EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"