"ABPW10 PGTW 060600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.5S 161.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM \r\nWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (NWWW) INDICATES WEAK WINDS WITH A WIND \r\nSHIFT FROM 270 DEGREES TO 10 DEGREES, ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY DECREASE \r\nIN AIR PRESSURE FROM 1005 MB TO 1003 MB OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GEFS BEING \r\nTHE MOST AGGRESSIVE. DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE AS A SUBTROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE, AS CURRENT PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY \r\nSTARTING THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.  MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST 92P TO \r\nFURTHER ELONGATE AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SOUTH PACIFIC \r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW \r\n051130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"