"ABIO10 PGTW 091800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/091800Z-101800ZJAN2025//\r\nREF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051ZJAN2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.0S 62.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 59.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nCENTER. A 082302Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCLOUD LINES TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE \r\nREF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.6S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION \r\nBUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 091451Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A \r\nBELT OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE \r\nSYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL \r\nENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 \r\nTO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"