"ABIO10 PGTW 092130\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/092130Z-101800ZJAN2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZJAN2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.6S 60.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. \r\n2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.5S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 103.6E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE \r\nCENTER. A 091451Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A BELT OF 25-30 KNOT \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MARGINAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL \r\nWITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE \r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING \r\nSTATUS.//"