"ABIO10 PGTW 180930\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/180930Z-181800ZMAR2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.0S 98.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 98.1E, APPROXIMATELY 86 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST, FORMING INTO A DISTINCT \r\nMID-LEVEL ROTATION. A 180330Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND \r\nBEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS \r\nEXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A 180851Z SURFACE OBSERVATION \r\nFROM COCOS ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SHOWS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 17 KNOT \r\nWINDS WITH GUSTS OF 27 KNOTS AND MSLP STEADILY DROPPING OVER THE LAST 4 \r\nHOURS FROM 1006MB TO 1003MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT \r\nINVEST 91S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO \r\nWARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE \r\nIN AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, BOTH THE \r\nGFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE GEFS-GFS IN \r\nPARTICULAR SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF 91S AND WHICH ULTIMATELY MERGES WITH 91S OVER THE NEXT \r\nFOUR DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//"