"ABIO10 PGTW 031800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-\r\n041800ZJAN2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.3S 101.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM EAST \r\nOF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 031515Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN \r\nELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nLLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(5-10KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28C). GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION (94S) WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS \r\nTHE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.5S 58.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 61.4E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH OF \r\nTHE COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031355Z \r\nSSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC \r\nWITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-\r\n29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND \r\nMODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON \r\nAN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE \r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"