"ABIO10 PGTW 041800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z-\r\n051800ZJAN2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.5S 96.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1270 NM EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A \r\n041552Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION ALONG WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nLLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(5-10KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28C). GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION (94S) WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS \r\nTHE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.5S 61.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 59.8E, APPROXIMATELY 791 NM WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A \r\n041342Z SSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH \r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY \r\nFAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO \r\n20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"