"ABIO10 PGTW 051800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z-\r\n061800ZJAN2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9S 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A VERY BROAD, AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND \r\nWEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nCONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-\r\n10KTS), WARM SST (28C) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nAND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (94S) \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS \r\nWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL \r\nFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S \r\n65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM WEST OF DIEGO \r\nGARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED \r\nLLCC WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE \r\nMODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\nAND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO \r\nMOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT AS PROMINENT ON DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE \r\nNEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"