"ABPW10 PGTW 010600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.9S 147.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 145.4E, APPROXIMATELY 33 NM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 96P TO HAVE MOVED OVER LAND WITH LITTLE SIGNS \r\nOF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BESIDES A TROUGH OVER THE CAPE YORK \r\nPENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CAIRNS (YBCS) \r\nSHOWS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, \r\nWITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRESSURE TO 998 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\nOF 5-15 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C JUST OFFSHORE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION TO LAND IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT \r\nOF 96P. GFS SUGGESTS A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION BACK OVER \r\nWATER, BUT QUICKLY MOVES BACK OVER LAND. ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, \r\nSUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6S \r\n165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. \r\nANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKLY-\r\nDEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A 312238Z ASCAT METOP-C \r\nREVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS VERY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST \r\nDIRECTION WITH SOME ELEVATED (25-30 KTS) WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND \r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERIES, NEAR VANUATU. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM \r\nBAUERFIELD (NVVV) SHOWS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AIR PRESSURE TO 1003 MB OVER THE \r\nPAST 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS, \r\nWITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FOLLOWING \r\n24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"