"ABPW10 PGTW 190130\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190130Z-190600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n18.0S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 166.6W, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION RIDING \r\nLONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 190042Z ASCAT METOP-\r\nB SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOT \r\nWINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION AND 10-15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS IN A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nHOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P. THE GFS AND \r\nECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nTRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF \r\nPOTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S \r\n176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ILL-\r\nDEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 190022Z ASCAT \r\nMETOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 25-30 KNOTS \r\nWINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE LLCC, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT \r\nWINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATIONS CENTER. THE SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH \r\nPOLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, \r\nLOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL \r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1). TO \r\nLOW. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"