"ABIO10 PGTW 180300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/180300Z-181800ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171952ZFEB2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S\r\n128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\n(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN 180202Z\r\nASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO\r\nWRAP INTO THE LLCC, WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 150 \r\nNM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\nTHAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE \r\nTO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 \r\nKNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT \r\nOF INVEST 99S, HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \r\nBE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//"