"ABIO10 PGTW 191800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.4S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM \r\nNORTH OF ADELE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AND A 191343Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A SLOWLY \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PULSING CONVECTION \r\nAROUND BROAD SURFACE TURNING AND ASSOCIATED FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG \r\nTHE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH \r\nMOST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS PORTRAYING WEAK, TO SLOW MODEL \r\nDEVELOPMENT. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE \r\nCHARACTERIZES A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE, ECENS, BOTH FORECAST \r\n99S TO REACH CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"