"ABIO10 PGTW 201800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/201800Z-211800ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.3S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM \r\nNORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201345Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS ALSO REVEALS A \r\nCONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH OBSERVED 20-25 KNOTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND \r\nWESTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH THE \r\nENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS ARE PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH \r\nAN EXPECTED SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"