"ABIO10 PGTW 221800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-\r\n231800ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.9S 115.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 462 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nOBSCURED LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201345Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS ALSO \r\nREVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH OBSERVED 20-25 KNOTS WITHIN THE \r\nSOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. HOWEVER, \r\nALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, THE DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 \r\nHOURS, WITH AN EXPECTED SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 25-\r\n30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"