"ABIO10 PGTW 230200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/230200Z-231800ZFEB2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZFEB2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.7S 109.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND \r\nA GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING \r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE LLCC REMAINS DISPLACED A BIT TO THE \r\nEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. A 221358Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS \r\nREVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WITH NORTH TO \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY 20-25 KNOT WIND FIELDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC \r\nAND CONFIRMS THE FACT THAT THE LLCC IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE \r\nCONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nAND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nPOTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 99S. GFS IS THE PRIMARY MODEL SHOWING QUICK \r\nCONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF \r\nENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL \r\nFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 230200) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//"